2023 CFL DIVISION FINAL PICKS

EAST FINAL: MONTREAL AT TORONTO, SATURDAY

Cody Fajardo and the Montreal Alouettes are on a nice roll and enjoying their best season since 2012, but they will be decided underdogs Saturday afternoon.

Montreal visits BMO Field to face the Toronto Argonauts in the East Division final. The winner advances to the Grey Cup game Nov. 19 at Hamilton’s Tim Hortons Field.

Montreal comes in following a 27-12 home win over the Hamilton Tiger-Cats in the East semifinal. Fajardo was 15-of-23 passing for 212 yards and two touchdowns and accounted for 62 of the Alouettes’ 159 rushing yards.

The win was Montreal’s sixth straight and followed a second-place finish in East with an 11-7 record. The 11-win campaign was the franchise’s first since 2012 and followed a tumultuous off-season that saw the CFL take over operation before selling it to Quebec billionaire Pierre Karl Peladeau.

General manager Danny Maciocia deserves much credit for Montreal’s campaign as he was handcuffed financially this off-season given the franchise’s uncertainty. That resulted in losing key starters in free agency, including quarterback Trevor Harris (Saskatchewan), receiver Eugene Lewis (Edmonton) and linebacker Adarius Pickett (Toronto).

After hiring Jason Maas as head coach, Maciocia added Fajardo in free agency. Maas and Fajardo had worked together previously in Saskatchewan.

But the Alouettes face a huge challenge Saturday. Not only did Toronto (16-2) tie the CFL record for most regular-season wins, it swept the three-game season series with Montreal and finished 10-0 within the East Division.

Toronto also boasted a 9-0 home record, although one victory came in Halifax against Saskatchewan. Chad Kelly was 15-1 in his first season as Argos starting quarterback.

Kelly, the East Division’s outstanding player nominee, has been solid versus Montreal. The nephew of former Buffalo Bills great Jim Kelly has completed 63-of-88 passes (71.6 per cent) for 902 yards with four TDs and one interception.

Kelly has also rushed seven times for 27 yards and two touchdowns. But Toronto’s biggest running threat has been A.J. Ouellette, who accumulated 253 yards and three TDs on 43 carries (5.9-yard average) versus Montreal.

Toronto also ran for 100 or more yards in all three meetings. Fajardo has been solid versus the Argos, completing 77-of-100 passes for 791 yards with five TDs and three interceptions while finishing the regular season as the CFL’s most accurate starter (71.6 per cent).

He also ran 57 times for 341 yards (six-yard average) and three touchdowns That could be key versus a Toronto defence that had a CFL-high 68 sacks.

Montreal allowed 61 sacks this season, second-most in the CFL.

Toronto’s defence led the CFL in turnovers forced (54), interceptions (27) and was tied for tops in fumble recoveries (15, with Hamilton). The Argos were ranked eighth against the pass (297.9 yards) and tied for last in most TD strikes allowed (31 with Saskatchewan) but gave up the second-fewest offensive points (20.7 per game).

Montreal’s defence was the CFL’s best against the pass (239.1 yards) and third in fewest offensive points (21.1). It also kept Hamilton out of the end zone last weekend and is a solid with the additions of defensive lineman Shawn Lemon and linebacker Darnell Sankey.

But Toronto is well rested and will have a home gathering of well over 20,000 solidly behind it. Two big keys to the Argos’ success this year have been their ability to play complementary football and not beat themselves. There’s no reason to believe that changes Saturday.

Pick: Toronto.

WEST DIVISION FINAL: B.C. AT WINNIPEG, SATURDAY

At Winnipeg, these two teams meet for the fourth time this year, with the Bombers having won two of the previous three matchups. Lions starter Vernon Adams Jr. was stellar in the West Division semifinal, passing for two TDs and running for three in B.C.’s 41-30 win over the Calgary Stampeders.

Adams has enjoyed a banner 2023 season. He led the CFL in passing (4,769 yards) and was second in TD strikes (31) while leading B.C. (12-6) to second in the West Division.

But Winnipeg (14-4), chasing a fourth straight Grey Cup appearance and third title in four seasons, presents many challenges. The Bombers were 10-2 within the West Division and 8-1 at home, although their lone loss at IG Field was to B.C. in June.

Winnipeg’s offence features quarterback Zack Collaros, the CFL’s outstanding player in 2021-22, and league rushing leader Brady Oliveira, the West Division’s top player this season. And that speaks volumes regarding the quality of the Bombers’ offensive line.

Collaros was second overall in passing yards (4,263) and tops in TD strikes (33). Oliveira ran 1,534 yards (5.9-yard average) and nine touchdowns to anchor the league’s top ground attack (139.1 yards per game). He also had 38 catches for 482 yards and four touchdowns.

Taquan Mizzell was B.C.’s leading rusher (773 yards, 4.9-yard average in 14 games) but the Lions were last in CFL rushing (77.3 yards per game).

Winnipeg’s defence was tops in fewest offensive points allowed (18.2), offensive TDs (27), net offensive yards (298.8), passing yards allowed (229.4) and passing TDs (12). The Bombers also ended their regular season with four straight wins, including a 34-26 overtime decision at B.C. Place on Oct. 6.

Pick: Winnipeg.

Last week: 2-0.

Overall: 59-24

(Canadian Press)