YOUR MORTGAGE NOW: ETCH’S & O’S

BY: Gary Etcheverry
For www.yourmortgagenow.ca

DELICATE ORGANISMS

Like our children individually, all football teams — at all levels, including the so-called “PROS” — are collectively delicate organisms.  We’ve seen the simplest of erroneous whispers derail an otherwise excellent season.  Or a coach’s benign remark become a rallying-cry that endures for the ages, keynoting a championship run.

And like our children too, our individual narrative and perspective can quickly become stale or passé.  Sometimes we accidentally-on-purpose “forget.”

Short attention spans do not exclusively belong to the youth.

What do we mean?

How about the old saw, “most coaches divide the 18-game CFL season into thirds?”

But do they?

We usually get a report card between games six and seven, with a reminder of the perspective itself.  And it works out nicely since “the bye week” occurs for all eight teams around that time.

You may even hear it reviewed DURING the middle six.

But what about the final six games?  No, by that time we’re usually distracted by shiny Grey (Cup) objects.  The playoffs.

The narrative in this neck of the woods has been that this 2013 campaign has been an especially “average” CFL season, played by, for the most part, especially average teams.  In particular “led” by inconsistent, unproductive offence.

That defence is and has been the “name of the game,” then followed by special teams.  But the “perception is reality” crowd still wants to perpetuate the QB-centric, ultimate team-game contradiction.

What does it all mean?

Nothing.

And certainly nothing if it doesn’t fit our perception or narrative.

“Ya, but what I think…”

From a Simon & Garfunkel song: “I still suggest that a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest.”

How did your team do in its final third of the 2013 season?  What about last year?

MONTREAL 23  AT  TORONTO 20

Aside from the Alouette defence, this Montreal team is an enigma in many ways.  After the dismissal of Dan Hawkins, who was 2-3 at the time, GM Jim Popp assumed the head coaching reigns and went 2-5 in his first seven games.

(Let’s not forget, back in 2008, then rookie Montreal head coach Marc Trestman began what would be his five year tenure with a 2-3 record, same as Hawkins.  FACT.)

Here we believe that iconic Alouette QB Anthony Calvillo was proverbially rolling his eyes when he realized that Doug Berry was taking over the offence in Hawkins’ wake.  Yes, he had worked well with Berry before, primarily in Don Matthews’ offensive system of 2002-06.

But Calvillo, during the autumn of his distinguished career, had become accustomed to Trestman’s protection-first scheme, that emphasized the short passing game.

Conversely, Berry, upon leaving Montreal in 2006 to become head coach of the Winnipeg Blue Bombers, and then being away from the CFL in 2009 (but continuing to observe it acutely), had undergone a philosophical metamorphosis of sorts.

Firstly, he had no interface with Trestman.  And on his return to the league in Regina as assistant head coach and offensive coordinator for the Riders, Berry believed in FEWER of the offence’s complement of six eligible players included in the protection/blocking scheme (like one or none), and a higher percentage deployed away from the line and the QB.  Like most/all of the TSN gang espouses.  In either case, in direct opposition to the Trestman credo.

(CALVILLO WAS A PROPONENT OF THE DIRECTION MILLER WAS TAKING THE OFFENCE UNDER HAWKINS!)

As part of the Hawkins/Popp transition, and Berry ascension from senior advisor, offensive coordinator Mike Miller was unceremoniously demoted, although he retained the title.

And between games six-through about 10, the Als offence definitely had Berry’s fingerprints all over it.  One back and empty formations, not much ground game, with plenty of long bomb passes, down-and-distance be damned!

During this time Montreal signed former Heisman Trophy winner Troy Smith, and there were whispers of easing him in.

In this season finale in Toronto it’s clear:  Troy Smith is the future-is-now QB for the Als.  And — at this time — it appears to be as much Mike Miller offence (much more Trestman-like) as it is Doug Berry’s.  A hybrid, at best.

So where are we now heading into the CFL’s November tournament?

Smith is improving by the quarter.  He will “lead” his Montreal squad into Guelph to face the Tiger-Cats in the East Division Semifinal.  The reality is, however, that if the Als are to accomplish anything significant it will probably first be because of their defence, which has been the only dominant component of the team, the division, and the whole of the CFL this year.

Both Montreal and Hamilton, by the way, are 4-2 in their final six games of the season, which included back-to-back meetings against one-another where they split.  (Only Calgary has a better “third-third” win-loss record than the Als and Ti-Cats, 4-2 each.  In 2012 Montreal was 3-3, while Hamilton was 2-4.  These two and Saskatchewan were the only three that improved this season in this regard.  Still don’t believe us that this was an especially weak CFL on-field product?)

(It should be noted that Trestman was just 3-3 in his regular-season final six in 2012; and colleague Scott Milanovich of the Argos, in his rookie head coaching season was also 3-3 …  on the way to the 100th Grey Cup victory in the Rogers Centre almost a year ago.)

The Argos, who now have the benefit of a peaking pivot Ricky Ray, were just 3-3 in their final six.  As of the moment, Toronto is a different team than it was at this time last year.  In some ways good, some bad.

Most noteworthy, the Argo defence is not where it was a year ago, but they do seem to be improving.  The kicking game is possibly comparable, but nothing to write home about.

But Milanovich is one year better as bench boss, and Ray — who missed ALL of the middle-six games and more — has found a comfort zone within Milanovich’s iteration of the Trestman offence.

As regular season East Division Champs, the Argos get to rest up and wait for the victor between Montreal “at” Hamilton in the divisional championship on November 17.

If Montreal can keep from having either/both its offence or kicking game from losing the semi, look for the Als to prevail over Hamilton.  BUT based on the Popp-era this season alone, that will be a tall order.

CALGARY 7  AT  BC 26

Moving towards the playoffs it appears the Lions are taking a page from the John Hufnagel, Calgary Stampeder book.  Based on limited action from all three, to be sure, B.C. looks to have pivots Thomas DeMarco, Buck Pierce and now Travis Lulay ready to play, if needed into November.

Since for the first time in the last 17 CFL seasons the playoff picture was settled coming into 2013’s final weekend, all six playoff entrants seemed to be vague as to their motives.

Prioritize going into the playoffs strong, or rest key contributors?  Of course that’s the age old question for this time of year.

What team this season has demonstrated it can PREVAIL — not survive — over injury to any and all players, from any and all position groups better than these Stamps?

Yes, Calgary possibly lost three key members of their squad in this finale at B.C. Place.  But as we’ve noted here before:  “Close ranks, move forward, play better…”

And no doubt, as the Stampeders now rest to host the West Semifinal victor from this coming Sunday, whomever faces Calgary the following Sunday will be facing a full grown, mature football program authored by Hufnagel.  Maybe his best TEAM in his six seasons at the helm of these Stamps?

For now, however, this is about the Lions.  This is still GM Wally Buono’s football team.  And as has been stated here before, CONTINUITY is the main ingredient in Wally’s World.

Additional to continuity is strong offensive and defensive lines.  Especially on defence.  Buono has long believed in a dominant, four-man pass rush, relying sparingly on the blitz.

But dating back to his transition from Calgary to the B.C. Lions, 2003, Wally’s teams have had generally unremarkable offences, with usually remarkable QB’s.  And we believe it’s possibly due to the type of culture Buono has created, and current head coach Mike Benevedes has continued…

OR, it’s inspite of the offensive system that’s been employed since that time (???).

This quarterbacking lineage includes Edmonton Eskimo pivot Mike Reilly.  Here are just some of the ingredients we see: hyper competitive; team-first guys; blue collar; if you want to keep a job — along with your teammates — figure it out, and get it done!  Win!  Survivors; Great teammates.

Remember, prior to this season, Reilly was part of the Lion brood, as was Pierce before his return from his stint in Winnipeg.

Now, Lulay may be back.  Pierce is playing better than he has.  And DeMarco — probably the weakest performer among them — can be productive enough.  They all possess many of the above qualities…

Where is this B.C. team going into Sunday’s match-up in Regina?  Last season it was 4-2 in its final third.  Now as a result of the one-sided, all-things-considered win versus the Stamps last Friday night, the Lions are 3-3 in their last six.

This is the weakest B.C. team, at this point of the season, in the last four years.  But charging, nevertheless.  They are tough, competitive and they are gelling cohesively at this time.

Almost forgot about the Stamps?  Last year, in the third-third, Calgary was 5-1.  As stated above, only the Lions were 4-2, with three teams at 3-3, and the final three at 2-4.

In 2013: Both Edmonton and Winnipeg are 1-5; three teams again are 3-3; two are 4-2…  and oh, ya, the Stamps are 5-1 again!

HAMILTON 37  AT  WINNIPEG 7

Leading the CFL this season with more offensive “two-and-outs” than anyone, we’re not sure how one can say much positive about these Blue Bombers, especially the offence.  They were 3-3 last season in their final six.

This year 1-5.

The Winnipeg administration, rumour has it, is floating the idea of status quo administratively,…  Really?  The acting-CEO, and the acting-GM — COMBINED — have fewer than two completed seasons worth of experience in their current roles!  Maybe it’s just us here who are ‘mad?’

Rumour also has it that they may stay within the CFL for the next head coach, if they see fit to part ways with current bench boss Tim Burke.  Oh well, why are we talking about one of the two teams that will not be in the playoff picture for the rest of this month?

The Hamilton Tiger-Cats spit-kicked these Blue Bombers Saturday afternoon in Winnipeg. The Ti-Cats finished the regular-season 4-2, as compared to 2-4 in 2012 for the third-third.  That was the biggest improvement in this obscure category of all eight CFL teams.  But it relates to victories — Always the most vital statistical category.

Hamilton finished with an overall 10-8 record this year, a significant improvement over last (6-12).

We still stubbornly contend here, however, that these Kent Austin-led Tabbies have been blessed by more good fortune than any of their competitors in the eight-team CFL.  Case in point: They’re the only team that swept the team they played four times this season, that being Winnipeg, with the worst 3-15 mark in the league.  In other words, 40% of their victories this season came against teams named Blue Bombers.  A deal that ONLY 75% of the league would have liked to have had!

Here are some stats you may find interesting.  Hamilton has yielded the most sacks on offence (65), and have sacked opposing QB’s the fewest times (35).  Only Edmonton (421) and Winnipeg (361) have scored fewer points this season than Hamilton’s 453.  (All three of the West Division playoff teams, and Toronto, have scored more than 500.)

And of the six playoff-qualifying teams, the Tiger-Cats are (minus) -13 in the giveaway-takeaway ratio.  By comparison, the only other “minus” playoff team is Montreal their foe Sunday next at -3 (the Riders and Calgary are atop this category each at 19, with Toronto next at 18!).

As has been stated here before, however, anything can happen in any one game.  Versus East Division competition, Hamilton was best.  It took the season series against all three divisional rivals (2-1 against both Montreal and Toronto).

But against West Division opponents the Tiger-Cats were swept by both Saskatchewan and Calgary, and narrowly avoided the two-game sweep by Edmonton.

Average.  Faint-praise.  Average.

Here’s an eye-opener for the Hamilton-/Austin-faithful:  Of all the advantages Austin has inherited this season, QB Henry Burris is arguably the greatest.  This season Burris has passed for 24 TD’s.

Current Rider offensive coordinator George Cortez’s 2012 Tiger-Cats, the most productive offensive unit in the CFL (that included the Marc Trestman Alouettes), saw Burris pass for 43 majors!!!

By comparison, tops in the league this season is Saskatchewan’s Darian Durant, at 31.

You may be wondering about interceptions (?).  We are!

Last year Burris threw 18 picks against his 43 TD’s.  This season 19 against his 24 majors.  FACTS.

But none of it will matter at Guelph’s Alumni Stadium come Sunday against the Als.  Can’t wait!

EDMONTON 30  AT  SASKATCHEWAN 26

Kavis Reed has been ousted as Edmonton’s coach.  More fall-out will ensue in the coming weeks.  The Eskimos had consistently regressed since he was named head coach in 2011.  The team has regressed below him, but the organization has most definitely regressed above him as well.

Stay tuned for more.

Our theme today is the “third-third,” the forgotten — most vital — third of the 18-game regular season.   Most vital because it leads into postseason play.

Last year the Esks were 2-4 in the third-third.  This season, 1-5.

Edmonton QB Mike Reilly, a product of the B.C. Lion/Wally Buono offensive “system,” has emerged as a star, inspite of the inconsistent, unproductive overall performance of the Eskimo “brand” in 2013.

The Eskimos — in a sub-par CFL, offensively at least — were immediately “behind” the 3-15 Blue Bombers with their 4-14 record, and therefore will observe the November tourney from outside.

And even though Saskatchewan is now in its third-consecutive (some would argue fourth, dating back to 2010) late-season swoon, there is a viable explanation for last Saturday’s performance against the Esks.

All playoff scenarios were set going into “week 19″/game 18 — the finale — and in their planning the Riders prioritized defeating the BC Lions this coming Sunday at Mosaic.

Simple as that.

Sure, they would have liked to have won.  A handful of extra seconds and they might have.  But on the outside they appear relatively healthy.  Much more so than it appears Calgary is after what might prove to be significant week 19 personnel losses.

In the two season Corey Chamblin-era, Saskatchewan seems to have improved in most every measurable way.  That is definitely what he is spinning if one listens to virtually every recorded interview of late.  And it seems true.  One example: The Riders finished 3-3 in the third-third this year, 2-4 last.

But philosophically — under-the-hood — will it all hold-up?

The two-step test in front of the Riders, leading to this Grey Cup on November 24, may be ideal.

So as not to get ourselves distracted, let’s first dispense with the Stamps.  They are clearly the league’s most successful team this year.  But like Sask, they enter postseason play having lost to a weaker opponent.

In a league of eight delicate organisms, Calgary is by far the most durable and resilient.  It has earned this week off to lick its wounds before hosting the West Finals on November 17, two Sundays from now.

Calgary’s loss against the Lions was its only defeat in the “third-third,” having gone a CFL-best 5-1 this season, same as last!  Diminish the organization that John Hufnagel has built at your peril.

But for now, this is about the battle that will take place Sunday on Taylor Field at 3:30 Regina time.  It will be a contest of the traditional order between the white lines.

The starting QB for B.C. will either be Travis Lulay or Buck Pierce.  If it was just a battle between the two offensive units, we’ll side with Saskatchewan and George Cortez’s outfit philosophically, strategically, and every which way.

But it is not.

Whether Chamblin knows it or not, this is a battle between his football culture and philosophy, versus that of BC GM Wally Buono’s.  And they are in stark contrast to one another.

Unlike a Don Matthews, or a Bill Parcells or a Bill Belichick, neither Chamblin nor Buono would be able to implement a CFL-calibre (NOT “CFL-Style!”) offence.  That’s fine.  Hufnagel or Milanovich or Trestman, for that matter, wouldn’t be able to implement a CFL-calibre DEFENCE.

And defence is more important anyway.

In affect, Chamblin has elected to employ — in George Cortez — a head coach of offence, as it were.  So based on his lack of overall coaching experience, to a degree he’s held hostage by the situation he has created.  The majority of his cogent thoughts revolve almost exclusively around the passing game.

Not so with Buono.  His offensive emphasis — his overall football emphasis — has always been with the offensive and defensive lines.

From a coaching standpoint Wally’s focus has consistently been with the offensive line.  He’s employed the same offensive line chief for more than a decade.  When it comes to the skill positions on offence, he has been greatly influenced by the likes of Hufnagel, Cortez and others.

Therefore the QB’s that Wally’s “system” has produced is almost cookie-cutter like (reference the detail in this same segment above).  Watch how they all behave during the context of a game, off the field, let alone on it.  In their own way, fully-invested “all-in” TEAMMATES.

B.C. Defensively:  Simple.  Traditional.  And on the D-line, commonly awesome talent and size.  Wants to fundamentally get it done with a four- or three-man pass rush.  Uncomfortable “needing” to blitz.

And in the kicking game:  Reliable, time-tested kickers.  And great cover-teams, with equally great Canadian content scattered throughout.

Although both Chamblin and Buono have almost exclusively coached the defensively secondary in their respective careers, that’s where the all-important (football) cultural and philosophical similarities end.

Chamblin’s view is almost exclusively a “passing” perspective.  Don’t get us wrong, like most all coaches, Chamblin has strong opinions regarding personnel across the board.  But when it comes to the strategies, tactics, the “soundness” of design, it’s defensive back/passing-game focused.

It’s these fascinating philosophical football clashes in approach that fascinate us here.

Whose football “way of life” will prevail this Sunday?

(Follow Gary Etcheverry on Twitter at @coachETCH)