CFL Division Final Picks 2024

TORONTO AT MONTREAL, Saturday

Chad Kelly and the Toronto Argonauts can flip the script versus the Montreal Alouettes.

Toronto visits Montreal on Saturday in an East Division final rematch. Last year, the Alouettes forced nine turnovers — returning two of Kelly’s four interceptions for TDs — in a stunning 38-17 road win before downing Winnipeg 28-24 in the Grey Cup.

That loss tarnished an otherwise stellar season for both Toronto and Kelly. The Argos posted a 16-2 record while Kelly was the league’s outstanding player.

This year, though, Montreal (league-best 12-5-1 record) finished comfortably atop the East. Toronto (10-8) needed a late-season win over Ottawa (9-8-1) to clinch second and home field for last weekend’s 58-38 division semifinal win over the Redblacks.

Toronto captured the season series with Montreal 2-1, winning with both Cameron Dukes and Kelly at quarterback. Dukes was 1-1 versus the Alouettes while Kelly served his league-imposed suspension for violating its gender-based violence policy.

The league reinstated Kelly in August. He played in Toronto’s 37-31 home win over Montreal on Sept. 28, completing 19-of-30 passes for 287 yards with an interception while rushing three times for 25 yards.

Toronto’s ground game anchored that victory. The Argos ran for 234 yards (7.8-yard average) and accumulated 517 net offensive yards.

The run has been important for Toronto, which finished the regular season second overall in rushing (121.3 yards per game). The Argos cracked the 100-yard plateau on the ground in all three games versus Montreal.

The Alouettes’ stellar defence finished second in fewest offensive points allowed (21 points per game) and features standout linebackers Tyrice Beverette (CFL-best 137 defensive plays) and Darnell Sankey (third overall in tackles with 107). But it was seventh against the run (115.9 yards per game) and eighth in yards per rush (5.7).

However, Montreal does dare teams to run, especially on first down, because even a six-yard gain still sets up a passing situation on second down. The Alouettes were second in pass defence (267.1 yards per game) and tops in fewest 30-yard completions (14) and TD passes (17) allowed.

Montreal finished last in net offence (332.9 yards per game) and fifth in offensive points (24.1). Cody Fajardo missed five starts due to injury but still was the most accurate starter (73.2 per cent) and had 16 TDs against just seven interceptions.

Montreal didn’t skip a beat with either Davis Alexander (4-0) or Caleb Evans (1-0) under centre. The Alouettes also recorded a CFL-high 36 completions of 30-plus yards while Toronto allowed a league-worst 36 but still led the CFL in sacks (48).

Montreal ended its regular season with consecutive losses but did have first place clinched and is coming off a bye week. The Alouettes are 6-3 at home while Toronto is 3-6 away from BMO Field.

Pick: Montreal.

SASKATCHEWAN AT WINNIPEG, Saturday

At Winnipeg, the Blue Bombers look to earn a fifth straight West Division final victory. Saskatchewan has dropped its last eight games in Manitoba and lost the season series 2-1.

Canadian Brady Oliveira ran for 1,353 yards and had six 100-yard games — both league-highs — but Saskatchewan held him to under 50 yards rushing in all three matchups this season. Then again, the Riders allowed a league-low 80.3 yards per game on the ground.

Saskatchewan also led the CFL in forced turnovers (49), fumbles forced (17) and recovered (14) while ranking second in interceptions (24) and tackles for loss (37). Rolan Milligan Jr. led the league in interceptions (eight) and defensive take-aways (eight).

Winnipeg’s defence led the CFL in fewest offensive points (19.9 per game), net offensive yards (328.6) and passing yards (234.8). It did allow rushing yards (104.2 per game, 5.3 per carry) but like Montreal counters with a solid aerial game plan.

Riders’ starter Trevor Harris can certainly find holes in a defence and Saskatchewan’s running game features the two-headed monster of A.J. Ouellette and Ryquell Armstead.

Winnipeg starter Zach Collaros, twice the CFL’s outstanding player, was second in passing yards (4,336) but had nearly as many interceptions (15) as touchdowns (17). Collaros and Fajardo were both sacked 34 times, tied for most among league starters.

Winnipeg certainly has a big weapon in kicker Sergio Castillo, who twice hit from 60 yards out this year, a league first. Castillo was the CFL’s best from 50-plus yards (11-of-16) and made 38-of-39 converts.

An intangible, though, is Winnipeg’s Mike O’Shea, twice the CFL’s coach of the year. The Bombers under O’Shea are not only well coached but disciplined as they averaged 5.3 penalties for 49.1 yards per game this year, both league lows.

Winnipeg was 7-3 within the West and 6-3 at home whereas Saskatchewan was 5-5 versus division opponents and 4-4-1 on the road.

Pick: Winnipeg.

Last week: 2-0.

CP’s overall record: 51-32.

(Canadian Press)