Thanksgiving NFL Picks

Chicago (4-7) at Detroit (10-1), Thurs. 12:30 pm ET

Line: Lions minus 9 1/2

The Lions have lost seven straight games on Thanksgiving, including three times to the Bears. It would be a major upset if that happens again. Detroit has won nine straight games since losing to Tampa Bay in Week 2. The Lions are not only winning but dominating opponents with six victories by a double-digit margin during their streak. Jared Goff leads a prolific offense while the defense hasn’t allowed a touchdown the past two games. The Bears are trying to snap a five-game losing streak. Caleb Williams hasn’t thrown a pick in 193 passes. Detroit is 15-3 against the spread in its past 18 division games and 8-1 ATS in the past nine games overall this season.

LIONS: 31-19

New York Giants (2-9) at Dallas (4-7), Thurs. 4:30 pm ET

Line: Cowboys minus 3 1/2

The Giants are a total mess. General manager Joe Schoen and coach Brian Daboll are barely hanging onto their jobs. Drew Lock will become the third starting QB in three games. Standout rookie receiver Malik Nabers called his team “soft” after they played like a group that’s quit last week. The Cowboys aren’t much better, though they fought hard in an upset win at Washington. Cooper Rush had his best game filling in for Dak Prescott. A soft schedule has Dallas thinking the playoffs aren’t out of reach. The Cowboys can’t overlook New York. They’re 0-6 in their past six home games but have won seven straight matchups vs. the Giants.

BEST BET: COWBOYS: 26-17

Miami (5-6) at Green Bay (8-3), Thurs, 8:20 pm ET

Line: Packers minus 3 1/2

Tua Tagovailoa suffered a season-ending concussion the previous time the Dolphins faced Green Bay on Christmas Day in 2022. He has 11 TDs and only one interception in the five games since returning from his latest concussion and has led Miami to three straight wins. The Packers face a tough test in the middle of a stretch where they play three games in a 12-day span with a showdown against the Lions looming next Thursday. Jordan Love has bounced back from two rough games to play two solid ones. He’ll face a strong challenge against Miami’s top-10 defense.

PACKERS: 23-21

Las Vegas (2-9) at Kansas City (10-1), Friday 3:00 pm ET

Line: Chiefs minus 13

The two-time defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs keep finding ways to win barely. They’ve won 12 straight games decided by seven points or fewer, the longest streak in NFL history, and have won five games decided on the final play this season. Patrick Mahomes is the difference-maker in many of the close ones. Kansas City could use a rout. The struggling Raiders provide an opportunity for a lopsided victory. Las Vegas has lost seven straight and lost quarterback Gardner Minshew last week. The team will turn to Aidan O’Connell back off injured reserve to start on Black Friday. The Chiefs are due for an easy one, but they’re 0-5 ATS in the past five games.

CHIEFS: 27-16

(Associated Press)