JIM LANG’S 10 NFL THINGS
Circle the date on your calendar; Thursday, April 29.
That is the first round of the NFL Draft which will take place April 29-May 1 in Cleveland, Ohio.
The first round is held on the 29th. The second and third round take place Friday. Then the fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh rounds all take place on Saturday, May 1st.
For the most part, determining winners and losers from the draft can be quite subjective. Last year, there are those that would say that the Chargers won the draft with the selection of Justin Herbert. Others would say that the Bengals won when they selected Joe Burrow. If you ask me, the Washington Football Team made the best pick when they selected Chase Young. Young was the AP NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year and he is the kind of player a team can build their defence around for years to come.
Only time will tell who is correct. Although, in five years, Chase Young will still be one of the best defensive players in the NFC.
With that in mind, here are the 10 Things I am thinking about heading into the draft:
1 – Mike Mamula
As teams prepare for the 2021 NFL draft there is one name that sends a chill down the spine of even the most grizzled scout and General Manager: Mike Mamula.
In war-rooms across the NFL, the name Mike Mamula creates the same reaction the name Keyser Soze did in the movie, “The Usual Suspects” (Released in 1995!).
Leading up to the 1995 NFL draft, Mamula decided to take a different approach than everyone else. Mamula was one of the first players ever who worked out specifically to make a splash at the NFL Combine.
The hard work paid off as Mamula was at or near the top of every test at the Combine. He put up eye-popping numbers in all the strength and speed testing drills.
Watching him perform physical feats of wonder at the Combine, Mamula looked to be the next great defensive player. The Eagles loved him so much, they traded their first-round pick, and two more second picks with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to move up to the seventh pick over-all in the first round.
Like a group of office workers who just won the lottery, the Eagles brain trust were high fiving each other as they selected Mamula in the first round. Little did anyone in the room know, but they were making a big mistake.
2 – Make the most of everyone else’s mistakes
In 1995, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers didn’t waste any time in benefitting from the Eagles’ mistake on draft day.
Five picks after Mamula went to the Eagles, the Buccaneers made their pick. They ended up taking defensive lineman Warren Sapp.
Mamula played 77 games in his NFL career and ended up with 31.5 sacks.
Sapp played 198 games, was a 7-time Pro Bowler, a Super Bowl Champion and a member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
After that, the Bucs took those two second picks from the Eagles and then traded them to the Dallas Cowboys so they could also have the 28th pick over-all in the first round. With that pick, the Bucs selected linebacker Derrick Brooks. Brooks went on to become an 11-time Pro Bowler, a Super Bowl Champion and also a member of the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
Sapp and Brooks were the backbone of the Bucs defence that destroyed the Raiders in Super Bowl XXXVII.
In case anyone is wondering, after his playing career was over, Mamula ended up having a successful career in the business world.
3 – Trust your gut
If Mike Mamula taught NFL teams anything, it is that a Combine stud could very well be a football dud.
The morale of the story is that a great performance at the Combine does not mean a player is going to be great in the NFL. At the end of the day, the guy still has to be able to play. The results at the Combine are just a part of what goes into deciding who to draft. From game film, to interviews, to physical and mental testing, no stone is left unturned.
Scouts, coaches and executives have had some epic screaming matches over the years as the debate raged over whether or not to select a certain player on the team’s draft board.
Each team views players differently. Even personnel within a team will look at a particular player differently. Ultimately someone has to have to the final say and make the pick.
On top of that, some teams go into a draft with a specific position in mind. As Bill Walsh was rebuilding the 49ers in the late 70’s and the early 80’s he couldn’t take being outscored all the time. Bill and his staff went into the 1981 draft with one goal in mind, ‘rebuild the defence’. They ignored what everyone else was doing and spent their first five picks on defensive players that year and Ronnie Lott (first round, 8th overall) ended up in the Hall of Fame.
Other teams might target the offensive line, or skill positions.
Each team has a different philosophy on their approach to the draft.
4 – 1974
If there is one constant about the NFL over the past number of decades it is this; the Draft can make or break a team.
Scouts get misty-eyed just thinking about what the Pittsburgh Steelers did in the 1974 Draft. Four of their first five picks that year, Lynn Swann, Jack Lambert, John Stallworth and Mike Webster, all went on to become members of the Hall of Fame.
A draft like that only comes around once in a generation. Maybe even two or three generations.
Most teams would be happy if their first round pick is a key starter, and then hopefully draft two or three potential starters with the rest of their picks.
Now if the Steelers draft in 1974 is the gold standard, then Jimmy Johnson’s draft in 1989 with the Dallas Cowboys is not that far off. Six of his picks that year went on to play a combined 952 games in the NFL and Troy Aikman became a Hall of Famer and a Cowboys legend. The next year, Johnson selected Emmitt Smith. In 1991, thanks to the never-ending bounty of the 1989 Herschel Walker trade, the Cowboys had three picks in the first round. Jimmy Johnson is a Hall of Fame caliber coach, but he is also a vastly underrated evaluator of talent.
If a team can hit the jackpot on Draft Day, it sets them up for years of success.
5 – Whatever you do, just do not screw it up!
No matter what, teams can not afford to make a horrible mistake like the Raiders did with the selection of JaMarcus Russell with the first pick overall in 2007. Mistakes like that can take years for a franchise to recover from. That is why teams spend so much time and money on scouting; to avoid horrible mistakes like that.
Even if you don’t hit a homerun with your first round pick, a team just can’t afford to do what the Raiders did in 2007.
6 – Mock me!
You get a mock draft, you get a mock draft, everyone gets a mock draft!! (Oprah voice.)
The coach and GM of your favourite team spend a lot of time on their own mock drafts with their scouts and player personnel staff.
And much like you and I, teams across the NFL go through their own mock drafts over and over again.
A team has 10 minutes to make their pick in first round. If the team above them makes an unexpected pick or there is a wild trade, the following team had better be ready for any and all scenarios.
And if you think, ‘hey Jim, you bonehead, how could any team screw up their first pick in only 10 minutes?’
This leads me to my next point.
7 – The Vikings incident.
In 2003 the Minnesota Vikings (sorry Arash Madani!) were late making the seventh pick in the first round and the Jaguars quickly selected Byron Leftwich and the Carolina Panthers selected Jordan Gross before the Vikings were able to re-group and make their own pick! And in 2003, teams had 15 minutes to make a pick. Now the Vikings ended up selecting a good player in Kevin Williams. But running out of time before you make your pick is a cardinal sin at the draft.
Long-time NFL coach Chuck Knox was fond of saying, ‘Proper Preparation Prevents a Piss Poor Performance.’
That is why you just can not do enough homework prior to the draft. Thanks to what happened to the Vikings in 2003, teams will stage mock drafts with some bizarre scenarios, just so they are ready for anything.
Even potential trades.
Now this year’s top two picks are pretty much a lock.
The Jaguars will take quarterback Trevor Lawrence at number one and the Jets will take quarterback Zach Wilson with the second pick.
After that, things are bound to get interesting.
That means teams that are waiting their turn had better be ready. Especially for unexpected trades on draft day that could instantly change the balance of power in the draft.
Tick, tick, tick.
“The Vikings are on the clock!”
8 – Beware of the Dolphins
The Dolphins have the sixth and the 18th pick in the first round, and the fourth pick (36th over-all) in the second round.
If general manager Chris Grier and coach Brian Flores are in the mood, they could make some moves on Draft Day.
They could go the “Patriots Way” and take one of their first-round picks and trade down to add extra picks in the second and third round.
Or, if they can find a dance partner, they could use some of those picks to move up in the draft.
If I were the Dolphins, I would keep the sixth pick and select LSU wide receiver La’Marr Chase. He is a great talent and will give Tua a big-time target to work with in the future. Then again, the Dolphins might decide to take Florida Tight End Kyle Pitts. Either way, they need to get more weapons for Tua to work with.
After that, the Dolphins have a lot of options.
By the way, this is the same Dolphins team that went 9-3 in their last 12 games. And now they are loaded with picks at this year’s draft.
While the Jaguars and the Jets also have a lot of top picks in the first two rounds, they have a long way to go before they can go 9-3 during a stretch of 12 games.
9 – Liar, liar!
Here is the other thing you need to remember heading into the draft; trust no one!
The NFL Draft is a giant poker game, and no team is stupid enough (No Raiders jokes!) to tip their hand prior to the big night.
You will not hear Peter King do a radio hit and say, ‘I was talking to the Lions and they told me exactly who they are taking with the seventh overall pick!’
Even if it is true, why tell anyone?
In fact, they do the complete opposite.
Teams will try everything in their power to spread misinformation.
I am quite certain that Bill Belichick doesn’t listen to or read anyone else’s opinion prior to the Draft.
Most of what you hear or read is for the fans and other members of the media.
Teams across the league are in their own little world in the days leading up to the Draft. That is why a veil of secrecy descends upon every team.
Simply put, what happens in the War Room stays in the War Room!
And by the way, ignore the haters when it comes to Justin Fields. The numbers don’t lie. In the past two seasons at (THE) Ohio State, Fields threw 63 touchdowns and ran for another 15. Plus, he is 6’3″ and a big, strong athlete. Fields might need a bit of seasoning and grooming in his rookie season, but who cares? Most quarterbacks go through the same learning process when they enter the NFL. If I were a team looking for a quarterback and Lawrence and Wilson were already gone, I would not hesitate at all to select Fields.
10 – It is all a big guess.
Before I say this, let me be clear, I really like Mel Kiper Jr. However, Mel Kiper Jr. can pontificate all he wants about this player and that player prior to the draft but the only people that really know what will happen are sitting in their respective team’s war rooms.
Nobody, and I mean NOBODY, thought Tom Brady would amount to anything when the Patriots selected him in the 6th round of the 2000 Draft, 199th overall. Heck, Dwight Clark, the great 49ers wide receiver made famous with ‘The Catch’, was a 10th round pick by the 49ers in 1979! (The 49ers also selected a quarterback in the 3rd round of the 1979 draft, 82nd overall: his name is Joe Montana)
That is why the NFL Draft is such great theatre. You might think you know what will happen, but rarely does anything go according to plan.
The only sure thing at the Draft is that Jets fans will boo every pick and Bears fans will still be crying in their beer over the fact their team traded up in 2017 to draft Mitch Tribusky!
Other than that, you just never know what will happen on Draft Night.
That is why we watch every year.
And that is why we love it so much.
(Jim Lang is Canada’s foremost NFL expert. Follow him on Twitter at @JimLangSports)
Welcome to Saskatchewan Jim Lang, your sports insight is and will be much appreciated. Thank you Mr.Rod Pedersen for the new column edition.
Great column! Thanks Jim and Thanks Rod!!