NEUGSIE’S SJHL PLAYOFF PREVIEW
By: Jamie Neugebauer
Voice of the ND Hounds
No. 1 Battlefords North Stars (45-11-2-0, 92 pts) vs. No. 8 Nipawin Hawks (30-24-3-1, 64 pts)
Season Series: Stars won five of six.
Battlefords’ outlook: There is no way anybody could have predicted that the last two league champs would have squared off in the first round, even as recently as the beginning of February, but there isn’t a hint of diplomacy when Battlefords bench boss Brayden Klimosko says he is taking this match-up very, very seriously. The Stars have been in first place since literally Day 1 of the season, icing what is on paper a near-perfect roster with grit, grind, skill, experience, pedigree, and tenacity all over the place. The one-time No. 1 team in the Canadian Junior A rankings is so balanced, with five different 50-plus point scorers, led by the speedster Austin Becker in overall points, and the talented pest Quintin Loon-Stewardson in the goal category. They also have the 1a best D-Corps in the league, with defender of the year Matthew Fletcher leading the line, and probably the league’s most dangerous offensive producer on the back end in Seth Summers not even needing to play huge minutes. They also need 19-year-old Kristian Lyon to keep rolling in net, as he has since being acquired from Langley in the BCHL at the trade deadline, but it’ll be interesting to see what the Stars look like with a 0-0 record again, as they have done well, but essentially been on cruise control for two months. The health element will be a massive story in this series, because they win if they are whole, and Nipawin’s two big-boys aren’t sharp.
Nipawin’s outlook: How could anybody count out a team coached by Doug Johnson, and with goaltending as brilliant as Ross Hawryluk? To me, a ton of Nipawin’s chances rest on the health of captain Jake Tremblay, who hasn’t played since Feb 5, and the sharpness of Jordan Simoneau, the man I call the Big Enigma, because I simply don’t understand what keeps the 6-foot-5, 230-pounder with a ton of skill, and a cannon of a shot from truly dominating this league every year. Simoneau was suspended for a couple in late February for a head-hit vs. Estevan, but especially in the small confines of Nipawin’s Centennial Arena, he should be nearly impossible to contain. The Hawks have all the forwards one could hope for, but a ton of the shutdown responsibility on the back-end rests on the excellent shoulders of Jack Lenchyshyn, who is in for an enormous amount of ice time this series. Nipawin has lost six of its last eight, with the two wins coming against bottom-dwellers Melville and Weyburn, and were shut out in their last two contests of the year against the Melfort Mustangs. Despite all sorts of skill, the Hawks have struggled to score goals all year, but none of it matters now. Coach Doug has all the experience in the world, has a roster with all sorts of skill, and maybe, just maybe, the better goaltending…I think this is going to be a dogfight, so throw out the records.
NEUGSIE’S PREDICTION: Stars in 6
No. 2 Flin Flon Bombers (36-15-7-0, 79 pts) vs. No. 7 Humboldt Broncos (28-21-7-2, 65 pts)
Season Series: Bombers won four of six, one in a shootout.
Flin Flon’s outlook: This is the most electric team I’ve seen in my short three-season spell covering the SJ so far, outscoring the second-most potent offence in the league by 39 goals in the regular season, and possessing four of the Top 7 scorers in the league. Head coach and GM Mike Reagan has done a great job bringing in the likes of Dane Hirst and Troy Quinn to steady the blue-line in support of captain Mason Martin, and if they are over the nasty flu bug that just wouldn’t go away in February leading to a shaky end to the regular season, they will certainly feel like they can overwhelm the Broncos in this one. Yorkton’s Chantz Petruic had the most points in the league, and I’m taking nothing away from him (more on him later), but I honestly believe Flin Flon’s University of Maine committed Donavan Houle-Villeneuve is the most dominant individual player in the SJHL. They have so many weapons everywhere, from Memorial Cup veteran and 39-goal man Cole Rafuse, to SJ assist king and QMJHL veteran Alec Malo, to the University of Denver committed Rookie of the Year in Tristan Lemyre the speed demon, and I could go on and on. The one real question mark on this roster is in net, where I am truthfully not convinced by either trade deadline acquisition Cal Schell, or returnee Jacob Delorme; they’ll have to prove me wrong at some point this playoff run! That being said, of all the series, I think a lot of people will put this one as the most uneven on paper, expecting the Bombers to breeze, but…
Humboldt’s outlook: The truth of the matter is that the plucky young Broncos have been as good as anyone vs. the Bombers behemoth this season, smoking them 9-3 in the Whitney Forum in Flin Flon early in the year, and sticking with them throughout the games since. Flin Flon’s power play has been incredible all year, closing the regular campaign at an unearthly 28 per-cent, but Humboldt’s has almost been just as good, finishing second in the category, and they have been even more deadly since the superb deadline acquisitions of silky-smooth BCHL veteran Doug Scott, who had 10 goals in 26 games as a Bronco this year, with eight of them coming on the man advantage, and reigning SJHL Rookie of the Year Luke Spadafora from Melville. Michael Harroch has been good at times in net, but not great, and he will need to find some real form for Humboldt to have a chance in this series; but if the Bombers take a lot of penalties, anything can happen, and you have to know that Scott Barney will have his hungry youngsters fired right up for the challenge. Mike Reagan is as plugged in to the league as any coach in the SJ, so he’ll know these Broncos shouldn’t be an easy out, despite the fact that the depth and experience gulf between the two clubs is huge.
NEUGSIE’S PREDICTION: Bombers in 5
No. 3 Melfort Mustangs (32-17-6-3, 73 pts) vs. No. 6 Estevan Bruins (31-23-3-1, 66 pts)
Season Series: Two wins each, one for Estevan in OT
Melfort’s outlook: This is going to be a beautiful series for the neutral: two hard-working teams, well-coached and on fire going into the post-season. To me, Trevor Blevins’ Mustangs played the best hockey in the SJHL in February, and with that 1b best D-Corps in the league (remember the Battlefords section), playing in front of the most dominant goaltender the SJ has to offer in 21-year-old Shawn Parkinson, who hasn’t given up a goal in almost 200 minutes, this team is peaking at the right time. Much like last year, they rely on their excellent top line (this year of Tian Rask, Kyle Bosch, and Kenzie Arnold) lot to provide the goals, but I find the supporting cast this year has a lot more potential to help out than last, with the likes of super rookie Ben Tkachuk, veteran Austin Nault, and Adam Nobes all more-than capable of producing more than they have lately. The Mustangs are especially monstrous at home, where they can match up the best pure shutdown defence pairing in the league of Alex Rondeau and Nolan Kadachuk against your top guys. Against anyone south of Flin Flon in the standings, the Mustangs would be enormous favourites, but I think they might have hit on the one exception to that rule. Either way, if you’re going to pick only one matchup to follow, go for this one.
Estevan’s outlook: It seems like just yesterday that Chris Lewgood’s men were on the outside looking in to the playoff picture, but really shrewd roster moves, and even more importantly, an incredibly impressive maturation of their young forward group in the new year has meant that the Bruins might be playing the second-best hockey in the league going into the playoffs, behind their Melfort adversaries. Like the Mustangs, they have great goaltending in Keenan Rancier, and a solid, productive, and experienced defence-corps, led by WHL veterans Devan Harrison and a healthy Tylor Ludwar, and Showcase all-star Kade McMillen. The top combination of Isaiah Thomas, Tanner Manz, and Jayden Davis up front has been dynamite, but the Bruins are dangerous all over the place. They don’t mind a nasty game here and there too, so this series should have everything you want.
NEUGSIE’ PREDICTION: Mustangs in 7
No. 4 Yorkton Terriers (35-20-2-1, 73 pts) vs. No. 5 La Ronge Ice Wolves (33-19-3-3, 72 pts)
Season Series: Two wins each, both of Yorkton’s in either OT or SO
Yorkton’s outlook: You want wild, high-scoring games that could go either way? This is the show for you. The Terriers have the league’s top scorer by a mile in Chantz Petruic, who made the SJ look too easy at times, but adding more WHL-experienced fire power around him in the Taphorn twins, and Alec Zawatsky, has been huge in solidifying the Terriers as a dangerous club this year. The forgotten man of the forward corps, Jordan Guiney, has been excellent in all three zones all year, and is as good a face-off man as there is in the league. Yorkton’s D-corps is more about keeping and moving the puck than dominating you physically, but with the likes of Ryan Granville, Kurri Woodford, Zach Ziegler, and Tyson Janzen, they can really pick a pass. Only last-placed Melville gave up more shots per game than Yorkton this year, but with their run-and-gun style of play, they are never out of a game either. They also proved they can live without Petruic, going on a tear in the captain’s absence to suspension in February, so it’ll be really interesting to see how they come out against a pretty similar opponent in La Ronge.
La Ronge’s outlook: Even if the Ice Wolves get swept (and I’d bet a ton of money that they won’t), what Kevin Kaminski and the community of La Ronge have done turning this club around is extremely impressive. He brought in someone he knew in Daylon Mannon early on in his tenure, and the high-scoring forward provided for him big-time, putting up 80 points, including a league second-most seven game-winning goals. The best move any coach made all year, in my opinion, was Kaminski’s deal to send away last year’s leading scorer Zach Bannister and defenceman Dylan Thackeray to Melville, in exchange for the absolutely elite defender James Philpott, and the very useful centreman Booker Chacalias. Philpott has been exceptionally brilliant in providing some creativity and production to a very hard-working, gritty defence-corps led by captain Ben Manson, and just like the Terriers, by hook or by crook, the Wolves just find a way to win games. Starting goaltender Liam McGarva will be out with his long suspension until late in this year, but I don’t see a big drop off with Xavier Cannon in net anyway. Interesting stat from the great twitter account @SJStatsguy: Yorkton has the second best win percentage this year against the top half of the league standings, and La Ronge has the third best. Anyone able to handicap this series is either nuts, or a genius, or both.
NEUGSIE’S PREDICTION: Ice Wolves in 6
(Follow Jamie on Twitter at @Neugsie)