NFL Sunday Morning picks

The Steelers are coming off back-to-back lackluster weeks including their first loss of the season.

Look, they barely beat Baltimore in both meetings (including the latest without Lamar Jackson), narrowly edged Dallas by five, beat Tennessee by three thanks to a missed FG, a game that Tennessee likely would have taken in overtime.

Buffalo on offense has more yards than Pittsburgh, is better passing the ball, better rushing the ball and the two teams are tied for 7th in scoring.

Obviously the Steelers have an edge with their defensive unit, which has been a top-3 group all season and first in turnovers (+11).

Matchup to watch: Bills’ offense is #1 on third down against Pittsburgh’s #4 ranked third down defense.

I like the Bills -2.5.

I actually like Miami in this game to cover the spread which opened . The Dolphins have been very good defensively. They’re #2 in points (0.1 pts/gm behind Pittsburgh) despite being #16 in yards allowed per game at just over 355 yards per game.  Kansas City, on the other hand, allows even more yards per game. The Chiefs are near the bottom of league in run defense but 6th in points allowed.  What does that tell me about these two teams defensively?  They’ll let you move the ball a little bit but not score.

KC is the 3rd most penalized team in the league… MIA is the third LEAST penalized team in the league.

In the last 8 weeks the Dolphins have allowed more than 21 points just one time and only three times all year. They’ve allowed 10 points against in the last two weeks combined! Tua is protecting the football (7 TD, 0 INT) and the team has only lost once since October 4th.

KC isn’t blowing anyone out right now. Their last four games (all wins) have been by six, three, four, and two.

KC will win but Miami should cover +7.

Look, I still like Seattle. I have hope for Seattle. We know their defense is bad and their offense has been underperforming as of late. This is why I think the Jets have a CHANCE to cover and keep this game close… ISH.

I don’t like this game as much as I like the first two, but Seattle’s soft secondary might be the perfect formula for NY this week.

I like Pete Carol, I like Russ and I like the Seahawks at home even with no fans. I think Seattle wins this game by 10-14. The Jets do NOT want to be a winless team. I’ve got them to cover.

I like the JETS +15 (I can’t believe it either)

I’ll keep this short.

This isn’t my favourite game this week because we’re all getting romantic about the NY Giants and some are throwing Arizona aside far too quickly. We call this a trap game.

But I still like the Giants in this one for two reasons. The first, I’m getting 2.5 points. The second, Daniel Jones is back.

I like the Giants +2.5.