Pro Picks: NFL Week 1

Pro Picks is a weekly column where AP Pro Football Writer Rob Maaddi shares his picks for upcoming games. For all previous Pro Picks, head here.

___

Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs will raise their championship banner and begin their quest to become the first team to three-peat in the Super Bowl era.

Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens owe them one.

The NFL season kicks off Thursday night at Arrowhead Stadium with a rematch of the AFC championship game.

Despite leading the NFL with 13 wins last season, the Ravens fell short against the Chiefs, losing 17-10 at home. Jackson ended up winning the NFL MVP award for the second time in five years but it was bittersweet after another playoff disappointment.

The Chiefs are 3-point favorites, according to BetMGM Sportsbook. The Ravens had nine wins by at least 14 points over teams with a winning record last season. They added star running back Derrick Henry but have three new starters on the offensive line.

Pro Picks likes the champions.

CHIEFS, 23-19

Green Bay vs Philadelphia, in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Line: Eagles minus 2 1/2

The NFL’s first game in South America features two NFC playoff teams. Saquon Barkley joins Jalen Hurts in Philadelphia’s loaded offense and two new coordinators should help coach Nick Sirianni. Jordan Love proved he was a franchise quarterback last season, led the Packers to a playoff rout over Dallas and a near-upset of San Francisco. The Eagles need to erase the bitter taste of last season’s collapse.

EAGLES, 27-23

Los Angeles Rams at Detroit

Line: Lions minus 3 1/2

A rematch of a divisional playoff opens the Sunday night schedule. Jared Goff and the Lions came close to reaching the Super Bowl and won’t settle for anything less than a Lombardi Trophy. Sean McVay’s Rams surprised everyone last season and have stocked talent around quarterback Matthew Stafford.

BEST BET: LIONS, 30-20

Pittsburgh at Atlanta

Russell Wilson makes his first start for the Steelers while Kirk Cousins debuts for the Falcons. Arthur Smith returns to Atlanta as Pittsburgh’s offensive coordinator. The Steelers are 13-1-1 against the Falcons in their past 15 games. Atlanta is 1-11 ATS (against the spread) in its past 12 games vs. AFC North opponents.

Line: Falcons minus 3

UPSET SPECIAL: STEELERS, 22-20

Jacksonville at Miami

Line: Dolphins minus 3 1/2

The Jaguars bolstered their defense and gave Trevor Lawrence a massive contract to take the next step. Tua Tagovailoa got paid to deliver Miami’s first playoff win since 2000. He has more help with Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and a strong run game. Jacksonville is 9-3 against the spread in its past 12 road games, but finished 1-5 ATS in its past six games overall in 2023.

DOLPHINS, 25-23

Minnesota at New York Giants

Line: Vikings minus 1 1/2

Sam Darnold takes over for Minnesota, which let Cousins walk in free agency and drafted J.J. McCarthy in the first round only to see him suffer a season-ending knee injury. Daniel Jones is back from injury with plenty to prove after a disastrous season.

VIKINGS, 20-16

Carolina at New Orleans

Line: Saints minus 4

The Panthers have a new coach, Dave Canales, and reason to be optimistic that he can help develop Bryce Young. Saints coach Dennis Allen and quarterback Derek Carr are under pressure to get the team to the playoffs. New Orleans is 2-8 against the spread in its past 10 games in Week 1.

SAINTS, 17-16

New England at Cincinnati

Line: Bengals minus 7 1/2

Jacoby Brissett gets the start over rookie Drake Maye to kick off a new era in New England under Jerod Mayo. Joe Burrow is back for the Bengals, who are looking to make a deep playoff run. The Patriots are 13-4-1 ATS in their past 18 games vs. AFC North opponents but that was under Bill Belichick.

BENGALS, 26-16

Tennessee at Chicago

Line: Bears minus 4

Caleb Williams has made football exciting again in Chicago and he has plenty of talent around him. The Titans hired Brian Callahan to replace Mike Vrabel and lead a rebuild.

BEARS, 23-17

Arizona at Buffalo

Line: Bills minus 6 1/2

Josh Allen has a new receiving group and Buffalo’s defense has a new look. Kyler Murray and the Cardinals finished a losing season strong last year and added Marvin Harrison Jr. in the draft.

BILLS, 24-20

Houston at Indianapolis

Line: Texans minus 3

C.J. Stroud led the Texans from worst to first last year and got another playmaker in Stefon Diggs. Anthony Richardson is back healthy for the Colts. The Texans are 8-4 ATS in their past 12 road games, but they’re just 4-10-1 straight up against Indianapolis in their past 15 meetings.

TEXANS, 26-22

Las Vegas at Los Angeles Chargers

Line: Chargers minus 3

The Jim Harbaugh era begins in Los Angeles. The Chargers have Justin Herbert. The Raiders are going with Gardner Minshew. Las Vegas has a tough defense that could be the difference.

CHARGERS, 20-18

Denver at Seattle

Line: Seahawks minus 6

Mike Macdonald took over for Pete Carroll in Seattle and aims to improve the defense. Geno Smith tries to get back to his 2022 form with plenty of talent to help him. Rookie Bo Nix gets the start for the Broncos, who enter their second season under coach Sean Payton.

SEAHAWKS, 27-20

Washington at Tampa Bay

Line: Buccaneers minus 3

No. 2 overall pick Jayden Daniels starts for the Commanders, who also have a new coach in Dan Quinn to go with their rookie quarterback. The Buccaneers re-signed Baker Mayfield and all their key free agents after advancing to the divisional round of the playoffs.

BUCCANEERS, 22-20

Dallas at Cleveland

Line: Browns minus 2 1/2

The Cowboys didn’t add much help in the offseason after a playoff failure but they still have Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and Micah Parsons. Deshaun Watson returns to a Browns team that made the playoffs with Joe Flacco after he got hurt.

COWBOYS, 23-20

New York Jets at San Francisco

Line: 49ers minus 4

Aaron Rodgers is back and expectations are high for the Jets, who have the NFL’s longest active playoff drought. The 49ers fell just short in the Super Bowl and are coming off an eventful preseason.

49ERS, 24-21

2023 Record:

Overall: Straight up: 175-110. Against spread: 150-125-10

Thursday: Straight up: 13-6. Against spread: 14-4-1.

Monday: Straight up: 9-12. Against spread: 13-7-1.

Best Bet: Straight up: 9-9. Against spread: 6-11-1.

Upset Special: Straight up: 8-10. Against spread: 10-8.

(AP)