The JJ Watt Watch!
Futures bets are already available if you want to put some money on next year’s Super Bowl champion. While we’ve said the Rams are a great bet, today we’re going to “play the market” and see if we can’t find some great value for you to take advantage of with our partners at ComeOn! Canada.
Friday morning started with some big news. The Houston Texans announced the release of star defender JJ Watt, to the shock of the football world. Shortly after, we learned that Watt asked, and was granted, his release.
So now the question becomes where does he sign?
If you can correctly predict the team he signs with, you’ll be able to find some great value on the betting front at ComeOn! Buy low and sell high is the name of the game here. The team that inks Watt to a contract will become an instant contender and the odds will reflect that almost immediately.
Let’s look a few possibilities and make a case for each.
1. Pittsburgh Steelers – This is the obvious choice. JJ’s brothers TJ and Derek are already in black and yellow and you know they’ll all be talking about the possibility of playing together.
The biggest roadblock to Watt signing in Pittsburgh is cap space. The Steelers are projected to be over $18 million over the cap next season and will have to shed salary in order to sign the former Texans’ star. Watt signed a six year, $100 million dollar extension in 2014 that came with an average salary of just over $16.6 million and a cap hit of $14 million.
2. Green Bay Packers – It’s easy for me to talk myself into Watt signing with the Packers. He’s from Wisconsin and grew up just two hours from Green Bay. The Packers have a choice to make this offseason. Do they keep their key pieces and take another run or two at a championship while the Aaron Rodgers window is still open? Or, do they turn the keys over to Jordan Love and attempt to accelerate the rebuild? Green Bay is already a top-three favourite to win the Lombardi Trophy next season and signing Watt would cement them as the NFC’s top threat.
3. AFC South – There are two options here. Tennessee and Indianapolis. Watt obviously has familiarity with the division and both the Titans and Colts are in win-now mode. The Colts have cap space and one of the best rosters in the NFL. The only uncertainty is at the quarterback position. It’s unlikely Watt would sign with the Colts prior to the most important position being sorted out but if they do, it could be a great fit.
The Titans are the other possibility. There is tremendous familiarity between Watt and Titans’ head coach Mike Vrabel who spent time on the Texans’ coaching staff. Tennessee has the roster pieces to content but will need to upgrade their defense, especially the pass rush. Watt checks that box. Tennessee doesn’t have the cap space at the moment but I was once told if money is the only obstacle, there is no obstacle.
The reason he might not sign in the AFC South? Respect for the Texans. They could have traded him but instead granted his request for a release. He spoke highly of the McNair family and the city of Houston. For that reason, this might not happen.
4. The rest – I’m using this salary cap tracker to look at who might be able to combine cap space and the ability to contend in 2021.
The first option is the Bucs. Tom Brady and crew are ready to contend again. ComeOn! has them as the #2 odds-on favourite to repeat. They’ve been vocal about spending this offseason and have the cap space to do it. The reason they might not? Their defense is already great and that includes the defensive line.
The others who jump out to me with the combination of talent and cap space:
Miami, Cleveland, Baltimore, Dallas, Arizona, and Seattle.
